There has been a lot of talk about a V-shaped return to growth after the worst of the current crisis. However, data from MYOB, which has almost 1 million subscribers across a range of industries, suggests a more subdued return to growth.
The Data
Invoices
What companies are issuing for work/expenses recently undertaken on the behalf of others. Declines may cause cashflow issues later on, as it will reduce deposits/income on later dates.
Source: Sydney Morning Herald
Deposits
Money/transactions coming into the business. Delays between invoices and deposit (payments) are likely due to payment terms and late payments.
Source: Sydney Morning Herald
It’s worth noting these are counts, not volumes, so it doesn’t give any indication of the total value of the invoices/deposits. There may also be a difference in whether invoices are pre-payment or post-payment for work/expenses, which may be typical for certain industries, which makes it tough to compare verticals.
What this means
This data suggests a more W shape for some types of business due to the knock-on effect of cashflow on decision making. We’re seeing this in a number of clients, where initial sales were strong, but more recently have dropped significantly. This lack of consistency and predictability is likely to drive more uncertainty than confidence, which could mean a wobbly bounce back, even for those organisations in a more comfortable financial situation.
Disclaimer: Rob is not an economist and takes no responsibility for your poor investment choices, or even his own.
Header Image Credit: Freddie Collins
